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V V V V V V V V V V V V V V V V V V V V V V V V V

四大宏观指标好于预期 稳中向好态势持续发展

2017-10-30 16:27  来源:人民网-人民日报

  今年以来,面对错综复杂的国内外形势,在以习近平同志为核心的党中央坚强领导下,各地区各部门深入贯彻落实新发展理念,坚持稳中求进工作总基调,紧紧围绕供给侧结构性改革主线,聚焦重点领域改革创新攻坚,有效激发经济增长活力潜力动力,四大宏观指标好于去年同期,好于年初预期,经济运行呈现生产需求增势稳定,就业形势持续向好,物价温和上涨,国际收支改善的良好格局,稳中向好态势持续发展。

  一、经济持续稳定增长,发展韧性不断增强

  在一系列改革创新举措作用下,我国经济成功战胜风险挑战,稳定运行格局继续巩固。前三季度,国内生产总值59.3万亿元,同比增长6.9%,增速比上年同期加快0.2个百分点,比全年预期目标高0.4个百分点左右,在世界范围内继续名列前茅。其中,三季度国内生产总值同比增长6.8%,经济连续9个季度运行在6.7%—6.9%的区间,增长的稳定性不断提高。从生产看,三大产业发展形势良好。农业生产稳中调优。全国夏粮和早稻产量比上年增产5亿斤,秋粮播种面积基本稳定,粮食生产有望丰收。前三季度猪牛羊禽肉同比增长0.8%。农业供给侧改革深入实施,种植结构不断优化。工业生产加快增长。前三季度,规模以上工业增加值同比增长6.7%,增速比上年同期加快0.7个百分点。供给侧结构性改革推进实体经济有效发展,制造业成为支撑工业增长的主动力,产能利用率不断回升。前三季度,制造业在工业中所占比重超过80%,制造业增加值同比增长7.3%,增速比全部规模以上工业快0.6个百分点;全国工业产能利用率比上年同期回升3.5个百分点,为近五年最高水平。服务业保持较快发展。前三季度,第三产业增加值增速比第二产业快1.5个百分点,占国内生产总值的比重为52.9%,比第二产业高12.8个百分点;对经济增长贡献率达到58.8%,比第二产业高21.6个百分点,服务业主导作用持续发挥。现代服务业快速增长,前三季度信息传输软件和信息技术服务业、租赁和商务服务业增加值同比分别增长23.5%和10.5%。分享经济、平台经济、数字经济广泛渗透,新服务不断涌现,发展势头良好。

  从需求看,三大需求总体稳定。消费基础性作用不断增强。前三季度,社会消费品零售总额同比增长10.4%,明显快于投资增速;最终消费对经济增长的贡献率达到64.5%,高于资本形成总额31.7个百分点。居民收入水平提升及消费理念转变,带动发展享受型消费快速增长、占比提高。前三季度,全国居民人均消费支出中,教育文化娱乐、医疗保健支出占比分别比上年同期提高0.2和0.5个百分点。投资结构不断优化。前三季度,固定资产投资同比增长7.5%,增速虽比上半年和上年同期有所放缓,但投资结构不断优化,有力增强了经济发展后劲。前三季度,高技术制造业、装备制造业和制造业技改投资同比分别增长18.4%、8.3%和12.1%,分别比制造业投资快14.2、4.1和7.9个百分点;高耗能制造业投资下降1.9%,降幅比上半年扩大0.9个百分点。进出口快速增长。前三季度,货物进出口总额20.3万亿元,同比增长16.6%,上年同期为下降2.6%。其中,出口增长12.4%,进口增长22.3%。

  二、改革创新作用不断显现,就业形势持续向好

  随着放管服改革深入推进,大众创业万众创新蓬勃发展,创业带动就业效果明显。

  前三季度,全国新登记企业同比增长12.5%,日均新登记企业达1.65万户。新企业大量涌现有效带动就业增加。在孵科技型小微企业达13万家,带动就业超过210万人。与此同时,新兴服务业快速发展,吸纳就业大量增加。三季度,文化体育和娱乐业、租赁和商务服务业、信息传输软件和信息技术服务业等行业规模以上企业就业人员数同比分别增长12.4%、10.8%和10.5%,增速分别比全部规模以上企业快11、9.4和9.1个百分点。在积极就业政策以及创业创新的作用下,就业形势不断改善。

  前三季度,全国城镇新增就业人员1097万人,同比多增30万人,达到全年预期目标的99.7%,已基本完成。全国城镇调查失业率稳定在5%左右,低于上年同期水平;9月份,31个大城市城镇调查失业率为4.83%,为2012年以来新低。三季度,全国城镇登记失业率为3.95%,比上年同期下降0.09个百分点,今年以来始终保持在4%以下。就业持续向好对居民收入的带动作用明显。前三季度,全国居民人均可支配收入同比实际增长7.5%,增速比上半年加快0.2个百分点,比上年同期加快1.2个百分点,继续快于GDP和人均GDP增速。

  三、市场供求关系改善,居民消费价格温和上涨

  经济保持稳定增长,市场供应总体充足,居民消费价格小幅上涨。前三季度,居民消费价格同比上涨1.5%,涨幅比上半年扩大0.1个百分点,比上年同期回落0.5个百分点,比年初预期目标低1.5个百分点左右。其中,一、二、三季度分别上涨1.4%、1.4%和1.6%。核心CPI保持稳定。前三季度,扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨2.1%,其中,一、二、三季度分别上涨2.0%、2.1%和2.2%。从主要领域看,食品价格有所下降。受对比基数和天气因素影响,前三季度食品价格同比下降1.7%。服务价格平稳上涨。随着居民服务消费需求逐步扩大、部分服务领域逐步理顺定价机制,前三季度服务价格同比上涨2.9%,涨幅比上年同期扩大0.8个百分点。工业品价格涨势趋稳。供给侧结构性改革深入推进,工业领域供求关系继续改善,工业品价格保持上涨态势。前三季度,工业生产者出厂价格同比上涨6.5%,涨幅比上半年回落0.1个百分点。其中,一、二、三季度分别上涨7.4%、5.8%和6.2%。

  四、开放型经济活力增强,国际收支回稳向好

  积极主动的开放战略深入实施,人民币汇率双向波动、稳中有升,跨境资金流动稳定有序,国际收支形势不断改善?;跷锩骋妆3炙巢?。前三季度货物贸易顺差2.03万亿元,同比收窄17.7%。新一轮高水平对外开放积极推进,“一带一路”建设取得实质性成效。前三季度,我国与“一带一路”建设参与国进出口额同比增长20.1%,高于同期我国进出口增速3.5个百分点。服务贸易较快增长。1—8月份,服务进出口总额同比增长9.8%,逆差1.2万亿元。电信、计算机和信息服务进出口、离岸服务外包等新兴服务领域保持较快增长。1—8月份,新兴服务领域进出口同比增长10.6%;离岸服务外包增长7.5%,占新兴服务出口的比重达71.2%。吸引外资大于对外投资。前三季度,全国实际使用外资金额6186亿元,同比增长1.6%;非金融类对外直接投资780亿美元,下降41.9%,非理性投资得到明显遏制。外汇储备连续回升。9月末,外汇储备余额31085亿美元,比上月末增加170亿美元,连续8个月回升,改变了去年一度下滑的状况。

  综上所述,前三季度国民经济稳中有进、稳中向好的态势持续发展,支撑经济保持中高速增长和迈向中高端水平的有利条件不断积累增多,发展的包容性和获得感明显增强,为更好地实现全年经济发展预期目标奠定了扎实基础。但也要看到,我国正处在结构调整的过关期,新动能新产业尚在孕育,结构性体制性矛盾依然存在,持续向好基础尚需进一步巩固。下阶段,要以党的十九大精神为统领,不折不扣贯彻落实党中央、国务院各项决策部署,坚持稳中求进工作总基调,更好地把握稳与进、稳与防的关系,巩固经济行稳基??;同时要站在经济长周期和结构优化升级的角度,深入推进改革创新,以改革深化增活力,以创新驱动增动能,不断提高经济发展的质量和效益,力促国民经济持续向好,实现经济长期平稳健康发展。(郭同欣)

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