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V V V V V V V V V V V V V V V V V V V V V V V V V

经济同步增长为货币紧缩提供契机

2017-10-27 11:23  来源:经济参考报

  刚刚落幕的IMF和世行秋季年会透露出对经济前景较为乐观的态度,但对发达国家持续低迷的通胀水平依然感到担忧。美联储主席耶伦表示,美国经济今年最大的意外是通胀,但她估计通胀疲软不会持久,持续发展的经济实力将保证循序渐进加息。管中窥豹,或许能从中找到未来全球央行货币紧缩进程的些许端倪。

  未来,主要经济体央行货币政策将持续呈现宽中趋紧的特征,央行之间的分歧将逐渐从货币政策取向不同转为方向相同,但步伐不一致,但这一过程仍很难在今年年底前完成。

  IMF近期发布的《世界经济展望》报告中,将2017年全球经济增长预期上调至3.6%,2018年为3.7%,此数值较7月份预期值均上调0.1个百分点。IMF还预计今年全球75%的经济体增速都将加快,这也是全球经济近十年来最大范围的增长提速。

  无独有偶,OECD的数据也对全球经济复苏表现出乐观。本月,OECD称,该组织追踪的45个国家今年全部有望实现经济增长,其中33个国家的增速将比一年前加快。这是2007年以来45个国家第一次全部实现增长,也是2010年以来经济增速加快的国家数量最多的一次。

  这种并不经常出现的同步增长现象给各国微调政策组合,适时推进结构性改革,改变货币政策唱主角的意愿创造了较好的条件。

  美联储退出量化宽松以来,全球主要央行货币政策的分歧不但没有缩小,反而还经历了一个分歧加大的过程,这主要和美国经济率先在全球表现出一枝独秀有关,货币紧缩方面,美联储也一直在有滋有味地唱着独角戏。现在,美联储进入缩表和加息组合的新阶段,其他经济体在经济好转的情况下也有了更多空间来重新权衡各种政策组合,实施非常规货币政策的经济体也面临新的选择。如果经济增长动能继续保持,势头能够持续,那么这些经济体有望从明年开始逐渐结束超宽松货币状态。

  尽管货币紧缩可期,不过过程仍会较慢。主要经济体如欧洲、日本总体利率环境是超低的,并且仍然都在实施量化宽松。从经济表现上看,欧洲有望比日本更早结束量化宽松,但量化宽松的规模调整也是渐进的。已经开始缩表的美联储初期缩表规模极其有限,加息如能渐进推进,到明年底利率水平也才能接近2%。

编辑:钟雅欢

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