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S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S

住房投机面临“釜底抽薪”

2017-10-09 15:16  来源:经济参考报

  近日,部分城市房地产调控政策再次升级,热点城市个人住房抵押贷款利率频现上浮,监管当局严禁“消费贷”资金进入楼市,住房投机炒作面临“釜底抽薪”,楼市“金九银十”恐难如期而至。

  今年以来,我国商业银行“消费贷”增长偏快,民间中介“首付贷”时隐时现,楼市对“金九银十”仍存较大预期,种种表象既反映出楼市投机炒作惯性的顽固,也表明稳定房地产市场的任务仍然任重道远。

  我国住房投机炒作屡抑而不绝,根本上还是因为在政策调控的夹缝中,投机客仍能找到一定操作空间,投机成本较低,转手获利较易。因此,以限售政策为主的新一轮调控政策,从某种程度上说,是对过去限购、限贷政策打了一次重要补丁,政策指向清晰透明,就是要抑制住房市场投机炒作。限售政策意味着投机客必须在较长时间内持有住宅而不能变现,基本丧失了交易便利性,而合理住宅需求多为首次置业,限售政策影响极小。

  房贷利率上浮有其合理性。今年以来,随着金融去杠杆进程的有序推进,银行间市场利率中枢明显抬升,房贷利率参考银行间市场利率定价,是市场发展的结果。但房贷利率上浮对住宅购置成本影响较大,意味着以金融杠杆撬动住宅的交易,必须要承担额外的财务成本,这实际上切中了热点城市投机住宅交易的要害。限售政策的出台,商业银行上调房贷利率,向房地产市场传递出抑制住宅投机炒作的坚定决心,势必对房地产市场预期产生深远影响。

  住宅限购、限售、限贷政策,是对短期住宅市场供求关系过度错位和非理性运行的临时性行政调节。行政干预措施不可避免存在局限性,但可能也是当前应对部分城市住宅市场非理性炒作,快速为楼市降温的最现实选择。一旦住宅市场陷入非理性的自我复制怪圈,市场投机炒作力量将以几何级数增长,房价泡沫的形成和急速膨胀,将成为影响宏观经济稳定的系统性隐患,且可能随时被引爆。当前部分城市的商业银行自发上调房贷利率,利率定价中枢的上升,适用于所有利用金融杠杆购置住宅的借款人,这在抑制住宅投机炒作的同时,不可避免会增加小部分刚需的财务负担。而利率定价中枢上升对房价上涨的抑制作用,将是一个累进过程,初期反应并不明显,中后期累积效应加速显现。各国房地产市场波动实践也充分表明,在住宅市场充分竞争的框架下,能够影响房价的最终决定因素将是利率水平的持续上调。

  房地产政策调控,是一个以时间换空间的过程。对绝大多数刚需而言,在一个没有投机炒作力量兴风作浪的住宅市场中,才有可能实现置业梦想。因而在政策上,短期内应利用限购、限售、限贷政策对住宅投机炒作力量进行“围剿”,同时尽可能兼顾刚性和首次置业需求,把政策负面作用降低到最小;中期内对住宅市场供求关系进行前瞻性调整,有效发挥利率政策对住宅投机炒作力量的抑制作用,引导房地产市场理性运行;长期应加快房地产税立法,通过税收杠杆有力调节住宅供求关系,建成促进房地产市场健康运行的长效机制。

编辑:钟雅欢
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